David Sirota would probably like to think his column, Measuring Electoral Success, adds to our understanding of how to advance the progressive agenda but it seems to serve basically as an apology for outside support of Tom Geoghegan's candidacy in the IL-05 special election.
Sirota writes:
There is a value in backing long shots, even if those long shots lose. In Geoghegan's case, many progressives supported someone who has been an important voice on so many issues, and who has had the courage to fight the good fight.
For most campaigns, today (Friday) marks the end of the persuasion/identification phase of the campaign and begins the mobilization phase. All the indicators available to me suggest that this race ends pretty much where it began. There has been very little movement in the race, in part because no campaign seems to have broken out of the mold, and the short time frame was diminished by the major media's virtual black-out on the race. (The New York Times has given more coverage of the special election in Buffalo than the local papers combined.) So I won't be at all surprised if this race concludes just as it began where the first benchmark polls had it.
But this special election tests some prominent theories about what is effective in campaigns and elections. Each of the major campaigns (and more than one of the second tier campaigns) have pursued a different emphasis among the basket of tactics available to campaigns. The Feigenholtz campaign has gambled on television driving turnout (or lack thereof). The Quigley campaign has put all it's eggs in the direct mail basket. The Fritchey campaign has blanketed the district with signs -- and I've seen more large signs than yard signs on his behalf. The Geoghegan campaign is counting on the netroots. The Forys campaign is betting that microtargeting ethnics will prove decisive. O'Connor seems to be betting that he has tight control over his ward (and a neighboring one), and that his ward organization is sufficient to pull out victory.
Because everyone has been knocking on doors and running their phone banks, these tactics seem to be what separates the campaigns in this special election. One of them will win on Tuesday (although I'm not counting on that fact necessarily being known on Tuesday -- or even Wednesday). What I do think is that we are going to be surprised. I have severe doubts that the most obvious choice will wind up the winner. That may depend on who you think is the obvious choice.
Charlie Wheelan was the last candidate to participate in this series. After a little bit of confusion about schedule, I went into a very wet Chicago to talk to the author of "Naked Economics."
When I walked into their headquarters at noon, they had 15-20 young people -- I'd guess college age -- at their computers entering data into the VAN. Other people were on the phones. An interesting environment, a serious, almost professional. People busy doing their work. Here was a campaign office with volunteers almost entirely in their 20s (perhaps a few teens) and there was none of the chatter, none of the good-natured conversation going on that I could hear. They were serious about why they were there.
Again, I would compliment the candidates I interviewed in this race. Bright, ambitious, serious people who've given a lot of thought about why they were running for Congress and what they wanted to do if they were elected. It's hard for me not to think that those who didn't choose to participate in this series were less so. Everyone had the questions in advance. They weren't difficult questions. But I've seen in the past that there are a lot of candidates running for Congress who can't answer even these basic questions. I look at these interviews as an opportunity for campaigns to get their message out. But they may not all see it that way.
One of the most interesting facets of this particular race is all the talent in the room, so to speak. One of the female candidates, Jan Donatelli, is impressing the people she meets and when you listen to her, you can see why.
I visited campaign offices for all the candidates I've been in contact with this week (except for Paul Bryar), and they all showed signs of increased activity. The Donatelli campaign was no different. In fact, their office was changed around considerably, to allow more volunteers to participate in the campaign. They have added staff, too. What you'd expect for a campaign a week away from election day.
While doing the interview, the thing that stood out was Donatelli's passion for veterans issues. Progressives are veterans, too, Donatelli reminds us. "As an aside, I think veterans in Congress is a positive way to put a new face on progressive politics."
John Fritchey is one of us. He's been blogging for at least four years now, and has been at the forefront of ethics reform in Springfield for as long as I've been in the state. Smart, determined, he's figured out how to get things done -- without having to succumb to the seductions of the Daley political machine. While Mayor Daley may not be endorsing anyone in the race, I am told by friends in City Hall that there is one person he doesn't want to see win. That is John Fritchey.
I can't tell you what that means in this race -- the mayor has ample support on the northside of Chicago -- but I do know what it means to me. Anyone the machine wants to defeat is okay in my book. Anyone who can divide machine pols (or what we call "Regular Dems" in this part of the planet) from Mayor Daley is even better. In the post-Harold Washington world, where the machine has learned to consolidate support among blacks and whites, reformers have to learn how to take voters from the machine in order to be successful. Fritchey is one of the few reformers in Chicago who have been successful at doing that.
One would think that given recent events in illinois politics voters would be more engaged than ever not less engaged; more aware of the need to be vigilant and educated in the voting booth. And this is a particularly high profile seat. It was recently vacated by Rahm Emanuel who left to become President Obama's chief of staff.
What if they gave an election and no one cared? (The answer: they hold it anyway.)
The Forys campaign was my last stop on Tuesday. Driving in from downtown Chicago (via Belmont), I could see evidence that Forys was making inroads with the local population. His red and white signs popped up with regularity.
The headquarters was buzzing. Perhaps a dozen volunteers on the phones and a few doing some administrative functions. I walked in with their new intern. Forys and his campaign manager arrived shortly afterward. We found a good spot to set up the camera, and when Forys arrived, we started talking. I asked about all the boxes in the space, which I didn't realize was filled with medical supplies. The community was involved in shipping meds and supplies to Poland, to my slight surprise. Forys seemed really tied to his local community.
As the interview ended, I asked about his experience with the Solidarity strikes. I couldn't really help myself, as I was fascinated by the fact that Forys was visiting Poland at the time. I included it at the end of the interview seen here.
IL-05 voters will have to pick only one candidate. There are other forms of voting that have the voters rank candidates, like Instant Runoff Voting or Condorcet voting, or approval voting allows one to vote for all acceptable options.
In multi-candidate races voters are often faced with a choice of a candidate that they like the most and the candidate who has the best chance of beating a completely unacceptable candidate. For example, you might really like Candidate E who has no chance of winning and vote for Candidate A over Candidate B, because you are deeply opposed to B and figure A is acceptable.
Below is a poll (you can vote for multiple options) of which candidates have a realistic, if only slight chance of winning.
Sara Feigenholtz is the right candidate at the right time to work with President Obama in Washington. She is a time tested Progressive with a 14 year history of getting things done for her constituents. Sara is ready to fight for each and every one of us, to ensure that health care is a basic right, not simply a privilege. In this time of economic crisis it is important that we have people in Government who can look at the bigger picture and understand that the stimulus is only the beginning and that fixing our health care problem will go a long way in helping each and every one of us and our nation as a whole.
Sara understands this, because she has seen firsthand what it is like for families who need medical treatment and have nowhere to turn.
I drove out to the 5th last Tuesday in the rain. I called the Bryar campaign to let them know that I was running a few minutes late -- which mattered, because it was the day that the candidates were being interviewed by the Chicago Tribune's endorsement board. So we couldn't really put it off. Surprisingly, I was only a few minutes late.
The Bryar campaign office was humming. Actually, it was quite crowded, with both volunteers and staff. As I set up the camera and lights, I got a reminder that this was Chicago. The El tracks were fairly close, and you could hear them inside the building. About halfway through the interview, the candidate got caught up in a tonque-twister. Can we do that over?, he'd ask. I ended up leaving it in because it provides Bryar's complete answer. Even polished candidates get caught by tongue-twisters. Bryar wanted it to be perfect -- but it wasn't a perfect day, outside or time-wise.
Like all the candidates, Tom Geoghegan has a busy schedule these days. This interview was smashed between other appointments, and there was some anxiety about getting it done within the alloted time. 20 minutes is what I asked for. As you can see, the interview lasted more than 20 minutes.
Actually, it took longer than what you see on film. One question got interrupted by my cell phone going off (my bad), and then the microphone slipped down. Strangely, the clearest segment was when the mic was on the candidate's lap.
Perhaps the biggest news this week is that the FEC deadline has passed and/or the Chicago Tribune endorsement session. It may depend on who you are and who you support which you believe is the biggest news. Others have argued that the dearth of coverage by the traditional media is the biggest news of the week.
What has become increasingly apparent to those who have been paying attention is that the special election in IL-05 enjoys an unusually smart, ambitious field who are working hard to win this election and paying attention to the issues in which voters are interested. As early voting begins on Monday, this race is turning increasingly from fund-raising and media to the ground game. Given the extraordinary density -- much of it in single family dwellings -- this has always been true. Which is also why all the candidates are out knocking on doors and calling voters.
Because of the large Democratic field, the Chicago Tribune editorial board conducted two different interview sessions, one which is the video to the right. Video for the second session is below the fold, but this article talks about "the rest of the field:"
Somebody has to be first. In this race, Mike Quigley was first because I've worked with Tom Bowen before, interviewing his candidate in the IL-14 special election. It was among the first things we talked about after I learned that he would be taking over the Quigley campaign.
I visited the northside on Sunday. As I arrived, the Quigley headquarters was buzzing, with almost everyone on the phone. Tom was excited, asking me if I'd gotten his email about their new website, More Transit, outlining Quigley's proposal for more public transit funding to be included in the stimulus package. Since I hadn't, he got out his laptop to show me.
The campaign of Rep. John Frichey, candidate for Congress in the IL-05 Democratic primary, took questions for almost an hour from area bloggers interested in the race. A little background first. Fritchey was the first elected official who started blogging in the Chicago area. When we held our first "Blogger's Breakfast," I invited him to join us. So it should be no surprise that he was the first candidate in this race to invite questions from local bloggers. As he said in the end, every candidate should do it.
Fritchey did not start with a prepared statement. There was no attempt to frame the discussion in one area or to refuse questions in another. We all knew that the recent Progress Illinois article. But they just opened the floor. Having no manners, I jumped in.
"Can you walk us through your decision-making process about getting into this race," I asked. Having Fritchey (as well as Mike Quigley and Sara Feigenholtz) as Facebook "friends," I watched him walk through the process publicly.
Late Friday, Progress Illinois posted a diary raising questions about John Fritchey's work as a lobbyist before the city government of Chicago. The post represents a point of view, "In relation to some of the issues we've covered over the past year," or what is defined as the interests of "working families."
This happens to be a point of view I am happy to see represented in the blogging community, which I think is heavy on the idealist or romantic end of politics and incredibly light on the practical or real world end of politics. But this post appears to be something of an ambush -- and a bit misleading. So I asked the writer what Fritchey's response to the post was, and came to find that he never requested a comment from the subject of the story.
The beef against Mike Quigley, the reform candidate/progressive with the highest name recognition (and currently leading in the polls) in the 5th Congressional District in Illinois is that he's simply too valuable in his current job as Cook County Commissioner.
Progressives in Chicago respect Quigley's opposition to the Democratic machine, especially with regard to his fierce stands against corruption, nepotism and the wasteful spending related to both. In setting up the camera to do a scheduled interview, I asked Quigley his response to this criticism.
"Yeah, let's start with that question," Quigley responded. "I want to answer that."
Three major events capped this week in Illinois' 5th Congressional District: the nominating petition process was completed, voting has begun and a whole beavy of Candidate Forums was begun. On the Democratic side, objections to Charlie Wheelan's petitions were overruled, objections to Roger Thompson's petitions were sustained (removing Thompson from the ballot) and Pete Dagher withdrew in the face of challenges to his petitions. Thus, the field on the Democratic side was narrowed, from 14 to 12. I don't expect much more narrowing in the field before the primary, as voting has actually begun in this race.
One person has voted so far in this race. Illinois has what is called "grace period voting," which allows people who missed the deadline to register to vote to simultaneously register to vote and vote at the same time:
"Grace Period Voting" is a safety net offered to those who fail to register to vote by the deadline of 28 days before the date of the primary or the date of the election. Grace Period Voting requires the voter to register and vote all at once and in person at the Election Board offices
Knock-knock. "Hello, I'm bored now, and I was wondering if you had an opinion about the upcoming election."
On Saturday, January 31, I knocked on 50 doors of people who voted in the Democratic primary in February of 2008. I was trying to get a stronger sense of whether I was right about there being a more intense interest in this race on the blogs outside the district than there was among voters in the district. Of those 50 doors, most of these single-family homes had two primary voters in them. I weeded out most of the doors with only one primary voter, although I did leave in a handful or so of single voters who lived in close proximity to doors with multiple voters. I like clusters.
I talked to 12 adults, two of which were not on my list. Of the ten, more than a few expressed the thought that they didn't even know that there was an election coming up. One person thought he might have signed a petition recently and several thought I was looking for signatures for a petition.
In Illinois, the first step for getting on the ballot is collecting signatures on one's nominating petitions. a sub-element of this step is staying on the ballot, as four of the 14 democrats competing for Rahm Emanuel's Congressional seat have discovered. The Cook County County Officers Electoral Board has set February 5th hearings for three of the cases (Charles Wheelan, Pete Dagher and Carlos Monteagudo) and continued the process for Roger Thompson. College students connected to the Bryar campaign, Mary Scala and Rudolph Trejo ("son of a former 32nd Ward Democratic Organization precinct captain"), were the objectors for Wheelan, Thompson and Dagher; Thomas Root was the objector for Monteagudo.
The second step (in Illinois elections) is the ballot lottery for those who are first to file their nominating petitions (iow, are in line when the Clerk's office opens up for filing). Charles Wheelan won the first ballot position. The complete ballot order is here:
Charles J. Wheelan DEM
Sara Feigenholtz DEM
John A. Fritchey DEM
Victor A. Forys DEM
Pete Dagher DEM
Jan H. Donatelli DEM
Frank Annunzio DEM
Carlos A. Monteagudo DEM
Paul J. Bryar DEM
Roger A. Thompson III DEM
Tom Geoghegan DEM
Cary Capparelli DEM
Mike Quigley DEM
Patrick J. O'Connor DEM
