I am disappointed with Foster. He's an intelligent guy. But ever since the get got he's had Blue Dog leanings and he's been willing to say so out loud. Still he's a scientist. That should count for something.
Lipinski's a straight up machine hack. Well son-of-a-hack. Still his district is solid Democratic and he has to have some affinity with his electorate.
Actually that Bean is still persuadable is a pleasant surprise. I know we write her of as totally bought by her district's heavy pharma presence, but maybe she is more independent that we give her credit for here.
What's also interesting is our poll. We give too much credit to Foster but not enough to Costello and Halvorson. Costello is a bit far away for us to properly notice. Halvorson is still pretty new to us. And we have high hopes for Foster. That's one set of explanitions.
Update: The Howard Dean count has Foster and Lipinski as yeses. We've reported Foster here as yes as well, and I regularly forget it. I assume that the OpenLeft whip count has Foster as persuadable because he has not recently stated clear support.
I totally get where these three are likely coming from when they sign on to a Blue Dog letter (pdf) that says:
"As the FCC embarks on its much anticipated rulemaking addressing the subject of "net neutrality," we therefore urge the Commission to carefully consider the full ranges of potential consequences that government action may have on network investment."
They likely feel that living in communities where there is a paucity of access already for their constituents, Davis because of poverty and Foster and Halvorson because of rural lack of affordable infrastructure, then their first priority is to get service first then worry that there are quality of speech issues with that service second.
Still it's a shame that they are allowing themselves to be strong-armed by corporate internet service providers. Davis should realize that it's a Sophie's Choice; that you can't trust corporate thugs to follow through on any promise they make when there are profits to be make by screwing you.
You may have heard that U.S. Representative Bill Foster (IL-D) and the House voted to approve the Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility Act (SAFRA).
You may also have heard that the bill would make a landmark investment in higher education to ensure that college loans are more affordable for families and more students graduate from institutions of higher learning.
But did you know SAFRA is also designed to bolster early childhood education in this country so students can arrive at school with the skills they need to learn and succeed?
Hon. Bill Foster, so since 20 Blue Dogs are on board for a non-triggered, guaranteed public option health care option, and since you have suggested some affinity for Blue Dog policies, hows about you letting us know where you stand?
Our government's responsibility is to guarantee quality affordable health care for everyone in America and it must play a central role in regulating, financing, and providing health coverage by establishing...
A choice of a private insurance plan, including keeping the insurance you have if you like it, or a public insurance plan without a private insurer middleman that guarantees affordable coverage.
The twenty Blue Dogs were signed this pledge are Jason Altmire, Michael Arcuri, Joe Baca, Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Leonard Boswell, Chris Carney, Ben Chandler, Jim Cooper, Jane Harman, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Tim Holden, Frank Kratovil, Patrick Murphy, Mike Ross, Loretta Sanchez, Adam Schiff, Zach Space, Mike Thompson and Charlie Wilson.
Bill Foster left me a voicemail message that he will be at the DeKalb Jewel-Osco store tomorrow morning at 11:30. I'd heard he was visiting with constituents at the grocery stores but did not know he was getting the word out this way. Pretty cool.
21st Century Servicemembers Protection Act - Amends the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act to allow individuals called to military service to terminate or suspend a service contract, after the date of entry into service or the date of the military orders, if: (1) the service contract (such as phone, cable, Internet, or utilities) is executed before the individual is called to service for a period of at least 90 days; or (2) the person enters into the contract while in military service and thereafter receives orders for a change of permanent station to a location outside the United States, or to deploy with a military unit for a period of at least 180 days.
Provides penalties against anyone who: (1) holds property or funds of a person in military service who lawfully terminates a contract; or (2) violates the 6% limit on interest rates charged to servicemembers during a period of military service.
Today marks the fifth anniversary of the start of the war in Iraq.
We are proud of the work our fine men and women in uniform have accomplished in the field. They have done everything we have asked of them. We are forever indebted to their service and the sacrifice
their families have made.
Nothing would honor their service more than bringing them home.
207 to 206 with 17 not voting. It doesn't get any closer than that. As Todd Beeton says at MyDD, we all know how Hastert or Oberweiss would have voted. We just need to look at Democrats Costello, Hill, Dingell, Clay and Skelton to see how "easy" it was for Democrats to vote the wrong way. Hats off to Bean too here. Johnson too is adding more fuel to his "Red Dog" status. Only this time it really counted.
QUESTION: On Ordering the Previous Question
H RES 1031 YEA-AND-NAY 11-Mar-2008 9:59 PM
BILL TITLE: Providing for the adoption of the resolution (H. Res. 895) establishing within the House of Representatives an Office of Congressional Ethics, and for other purposes
He just can't help himself. First the recount petition and now this. In the Beacon News'"Laesch is not in Foster's Corner," John Laesch just said buh-bye to the very Democratic organization he's helped to build in IL-14.
Calling Foster a conservative "Blue Dog" Democrat, Laesch said he would not be lining up behind Foster for the November general election.
Laesch is "Mr. Progressive" and Bill Foster leans too far to the right for his taste. I get it, but isn't it very bad form for someone to pledge non-support for a fellow Dem and to throw his hat into the ring for the 2010 primaries before the November general? How could he expect the Democrats ever to support him again after such a stunt?
Answer: somehow he will expect it, then complain bitterly when it's not forthcoming. It's some sort of perpetual underdog image thingy.
[Note: I am reluctantly allowing comments. If it turns out badly, I'd prefer you try to see me as a martyr for the First Amendment. But I'm not terribly optimistic.]
Update (wegerje) And here's his first vote:
H R 2082 23 YEA-AND-NAY 11-Mar-2008 7:01 PM
QUESTION: Passage, Objections of the President Not Withstanding
BILL TITLE: The Intelligence Authorization Act of 2008
Override Bush veto of anti-torture bill. Democrats
I was part of the effort of NDFA's drive to boost turnout in the critical race which Bill foster won on Saturday.
The headline about the election in the Chicago Sun Times was
BOMBSHELL
That was accurate.
Of the 8 Republicans who are in the US House from Illinois currently, 6 received a lower percentage of the vote in '06 than Hastert did. Only on the far-west edge of the 14th CD is there anyone who is represented by a Democrat in the legislature. Putting as money much into Republican open seats with lower winning margins in Illinois as the RNCC put into this losing race would take more than it has on hand. Never mind the other 49 states.
My experiences after the jump.
first of all, congratulations to bill foster, our newest member of congress. it will be kind of weird calling him congressman. and congratulations to his staff and all the volunteers who helped elect foster. what a tremendous achievement!
foster's election is vindication of all those who believed that a serious democratic candidate with a great campaign organization could turn il-14 blue. and now we have! it is also vindication for the plan that bill and tom put together, and especially the networking they did to create a solid pool of campaign workers who went out and delivered the vote for foster. this should serve as both proof of what a good campaign can do and an example for the local democratic parties and their future candidates.
it's probably too early to really dissect how bill foster won denny hastert's open seat but we can put some things into context.
Foster won the majority of counties (wins in bold):
City of Aurora: 65% to 35% Bureau: 47% to 53%
Henry County: 38% to 62%
DeKalb: 56% to 44%
DuPage County: 50.6% to 49.4%
Kane County: 51% to 49%
Kendall: 50.3% to 49.7% Lee: 44% to 56%
Whiteside: 55% to 45%
Final Result: 568 of 568 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Bill Foster (D): 53% (52,010) Jim Oberweis (R): 47% (46,988)
Foster's party entrance befitted the stunning win over perennial GOP bridesmaid Jim Oberweis. He topped Oberweis by just more than 5,000 votes, unofficially, across the 14th Congressional District to fill the remainder of retired Rep. Dennis Hastert's term.
"Back in the lab, this is something we'd call a pretty successful experiment," Foster deadpanned to start a 14-minute victory speech.
[...]
Surrounded by his two children, ex-wife and Democratic leaders ranging from Kane County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Guethle to U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, Foster renewed his pledges to provide health care to all and work to change direction in Iraq.
Foster also received a congratulatory call from Illinois' other U.S. senator, Barack Obama, who has made "change" the theme of his presidential campaign.
"Change started right here in the 14th District," Durbin told the crowd, then credited Foster for withstanding a million-dollar barrage of negative ads from Oberweis.
Change is the theme indeed! So now lets see just how long Mr. Obama's coattails actual are and get the race for the nomination over.
I just received this in an email blast sent out by DuPage County Democratic Chairman Bob Peickert:
Our lawyer doing legal support for the Foster campaign in DuPage today has discovered that the TSX machines in at least 3 locations display the word REPUBLICAN when the cards are inserted. The ballot is correct but the subliminal effect is disturbing. Remedial efforts by the DuPage Election Commission are forthcoming but the machines were not immediately shut down when this was discovered. In one poll, the offending area of the display was covered with masking tape and at the other they were told it would " say Republican" but "just to ignore it". We are not saying the Commission is cheating but merely that it would not look much different if they were. WE CAN BEAT THE MARGIN BY HELPING RIGHT NOW.
Isn't it interesting that every time an electronic voting machine in a close election has a "glitch" that it is more likely to read "Republican" than "Democrat". There has to be some law of averages that is just getting laughed at in the frequency of these "mistakes" in the GOP's favor.
Before I hot the doors for the evening, I thought I'd stop in and report what's happening out here in IL-14.
There's tons of people out from within the state and from across the country. Several "super volunteers" who volunteered with Bill in Pennsylvania hopped planes out to Aurora and are pounding the pavement with the rest of us.
The scientist and engineer activists are out in full effect, including current and former Fermilab scientists and support staff and academic colleagues of Bill's. There are several people here from around the country who went to grad school with Bill and are incredibly excited about his campaign.
Labor is on board with folks from IUPAT, SEIU, AFSCME, IBEW, and Letter Carriers everywhere. The Letter Carriers local in Aurora is one of the most militant unions I've had the pleasure to know and work with! You've got to love militant mailmen and women who want to see a change in their government.
The Seals campaign has sent a bunch of people and the Harper campaign, too. Even Jill Morgenthaler running in IL-06 sent people! Obama's Illinois organization is on board, too. In fact, I received a call from Obama's Chicago headquarters this morning asking me to volunteer! The woman on the other end of the line was pretty heartened to hear that I was already here!
I said "sort of" liveblogging because I'm not sure when I'll be back.
The turf is all cut for tomorrow and we're ready to go! And the best part?
There's no sign of Oberweis' people on the street ANYWHERE!
every democratic activist in the country has the same question today: can bill foster steal a long-time -- and once thought permanent -- republican congressional seat for democrats?
the answer is up to us.
this morning, national public radio has a segment about the race on morning edition. charlie cook (PDF) changed his rating of this race from leans republican to toss-up. the rothenberg political report did the same:
From subscription only Roll Call (via Open Left) we learn:
In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.
Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party's base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.
In contrast, Roll Call's poll suggested that 89 percent of likely Republican special election participants pulled the hypothetical lever for Oberweis, owner of a eponymous multi-state retail ice cream chain. The survey also showed that Oberweis drew dramatically fewer potential party switchers than Foster - just 3 percent.
Self-defined independents, who are expected to make up one-quarter of Saturday's electorate, picked Oberweis 38 percent of the time in Roll Call's hypothetical matchup.
So Foster is outside the margin of error, is picking up independents who are expected to be 25% of the electorate in this election, and is doing better with his own base then is the milk man.
Basically this one is down to turn out. If Foster can turn out voters on Saturday, we may have a pick up. Add to this bored's assertion that a special election is just that much more special to the Republicans, we may even be able to provide the first of an early blow to them for next December.
i returned to illinois (believe me, i wanted to say florida -- is it spring yet?) to find this email:
Why are Republicans spending a million dollars to help Oberweis? I don't understand. Oberweis has lots of money and Congressional Republicans don't.
jonathan singer of mydd writes, NRCC Blows Nearly One Third of its CoH on IL-14 Special Election. but there's a very good reason why congressional republicans are betting the farm on this special election. the core of republican campaign doctrine is winning special elections and leveraging those wins into bigger wins in the general. that's what they are trying to do here.
voters in il-14 are uniquely in the position to either send republicans packing in 2008 or give them a win that can lead to the election of john mccain and more republicans in november. now that's power.
