From subscription only Roll Call (via Open Left) we learn:
In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.
Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party's base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.
In contrast, Roll Call's poll suggested that 89 percent of likely Republican special election participants pulled the hypothetical lever for Oberweis, owner of a eponymous multi-state retail ice cream chain. The survey also showed that Oberweis drew dramatically fewer potential party switchers than Foster - just 3 percent.
Self-defined independents, who are expected to make up one-quarter of Saturday's electorate, picked Oberweis 38 percent of the time in Roll Call's hypothetical matchup.
So Foster is outside the margin of error, is picking up independents who are expected to be 25% of the electorate in this election, and is doing better with his own base then is the milk man.
Basically this one is down to turn out. If Foster can turn out voters on Saturday, we may have a pick up. Add to this bored's assertion that a special election is just that much more special to the Republicans, we may even be able to provide the first of an early blow to them for next December.
Republican Oberweis In Uphill Fight to Beat Democrat Foster in Race for Hastert's US House Seat: In the final week of the campaign to replace Dennis Hastert in Illinois' 14th Congressional District, Democrat Bill Foster runs ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Jim Oberweis, with both candidates positioned for a possible win on Saturday 03/08/08. Oberweis leads by 8 among men. Foster leads by 23 among women. When men and women are combined, it's Foster 52%, Oberweis 45%, in research conducted exclusively for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Oberweis holds 89% of the Republican base. Foster holds 97% of the Democrat base. Independents break 3:2 Democrat. Hispanics vote Republican. Hispanics are 18% of the District, but 6% of SurveyUSA's likely voters. If Hispanics are under-counted here, Oberweis will over-perform these numbers. Should Foster win, Hastert's Republican-held House seat flips. The contest has national implications.
Favorability: Among likely voters: Hastert is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 35%, for Net Plus 13. IL Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 12%, unfavorably by 74%, for a Net Minus 62. IL Democratic Senator Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 35%, for a Net Plus 14. 36% of likely voters say Congress should continue funding the Iraq war at the level requested by the President. 35% say Congress should fund the war, but at a different Level. 26% say Congress should stop funding the war. 39% say the Bush tax cuts should be allowed to expire, 52% say the cuts should be made permanent. 47% say Congress should require those in the country illegally to leave, 39% say Congress should penalize illegals but allow them to stay, 10% say illegals should be allowed to stay without penalty.
